Average pay rise hits a record ¥13,926 a month; care visa quota tilts 20,000 places to tokutei gino
MHLW's annual survey puts the average monthly raise at ¥13,926 (4.4%), with 92.0% of firms raising pay. The government proposes moving 20,000 care-sector places from ikusei shuro to tokutei gino, and mental-health sick-pay claims near 80,000.
MHLW's 2026 survey of 1,862 firms with 100 or more staff, published on 21 October, puts the average monthly raise at ¥13,926, up ¥325 and the highest since 1999. The rate held at 4.4%. 92.0% of firms raised pay and 57.9% did a base-up. Firms with 5,000+ staff gave ¥16,680 (4.8%); those with 100 to 299 gave ¥11,279 (3.9%).
Why it matters: This is the benchmark many firms use to test their own increases. If your 2026 raise was below 4.4%, or below 3.9% at a smaller firm, expect retention pressure and plan the 2027 budget with that gap in mind.
At an expert meeting on 19 October the Immigration Services Agency proposed raising the care sector's tokutei gino (specified skilled worker) No. 1 cap from 126,900 to 146,900 to March 2029 and cutting the new ikusei shuro (training and employment) quota from 33,800 to 13,800, keeping the 160,700 total. Care tokutei gino holders hit 79,884 in June.
Why it matters: Care operators were at risk of a hiring freeze like the one food service hit in April. The plan is not final; employers relying on foreign care staff should favour tokutei gino routes and watch for Cabinet approval.
Rodo Shimbun reports that Kyokai Kenpo, the health insurer for mainly smaller firms, paid 79,825 sickness allowance (shobyo teatekin) cases for mental disorders in FY2025, up 9,486. They were 41.3% of all 193,435 cases and 45.3% of the ¥37.43 billion paid. Cases have risen by about 10,000 a year since FY2023, with women at 44,127.
Why it matters: Mental-health absence is now the main reason staff draw sick pay. Check return-to-work procedures, line-manager training and stress-check follow-up, especially at smaller sites where cover is thin.
Rodo Shimbun reports that at the 14 October Labour Policy Council working conditions subcommittee, union members called for the Labour Standards Act to require an 11-hour rest between shifts in every industry. Employer members opposed a strict rule, saying it would amount to a daily cap on hours, and asked for room for firms to design their own systems.
Why it matters: A legal interval duty is still undecided, but it is the main fight in the overhaul. Firms with late-night or shift work should check how often staff get under 11 hours' rest now.
MHLW revised its workplace health guideline under the Industrial Safety and Health Act, effective 19 October. It now covers early detection as well as lifestyle: follow-up checks for cancer, women's health issues such as menstrual and menopausal disorders, dental, bone and eye disease, plus work with health insurers and support for working through treatment.
Why it matters: The guideline is not a new legal duty, but labour inspectors and insurers will refer to it. Review whether your health check follow-up, women's health support and treatment-and-work policies match it.
Compiled each weekday morning with AI assistance from the reports linked under each story; summaries are ours, the reporting is theirs. Check the source before acting on anything here. Corrections: editor@hardestmarket.com.
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